One, President Trump will inevitably claw his way back into contention, rallying Republicans who don’t want to lose power and softening Joe Biden’s support — a la what happened in the weeks after that disastrous “Access Hollywood” video in 2016. Or two, the numbers will either stay the same or even get worse for the GOP — since Trump is now the incumbent, not the challenger, amid a pandemic that has now killed almost 135,000 Americans and brought the U.S. unemployment rate into the double digits. It’s that second scenario that should scare the heck out of GOP strategists: What if a majority of the electorate already has given up on Trump, like what happened to George W. Bush after Hurricane Katrina and Iraq, or Jimmy Carter after the Iran-hostage crisis?
